The Overconfidence Effect: Why Summarized Memory Makes AI Agents Worse
Here’s a result we didn’t expect: an AI agent with carefully curated synthetic memory performed worse than one with no memory at all. Not slightly worse. Significantly worse. 2.65 vs 3.30 out of 5.0. We call it the “overconfidence effect” — and it might change how you think about giving context to AI agents. The Setup Earlier today we shared our preprint on experiential vs synthetic memory in AI agents. We then ran the actual experiment and published the results as v2 of the paper on Zenodo. ...